A new demographic model projects migrant-background majorities within decades, even as housing, security, and border failures fuel a backlash
Published 9 Oct, 2026 14:20
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The native population in several European countries could become a minority within the next two decades if current demographic trends continue, according to a new model projecting the long-term effects of migration and declining birth rates.
Meanwhile, European governments continue to portray migration as an investment in the future, even as local communities grapple with high housing costs, overstretched public services, and persistent failures in border enforcement.
Who is doing the counting?
The Demography Dashboard was published earlier this week by the Institute for Remigration (IFR), run by Austrian activist and author Martin Sellner. He campaigns for sharply reducing immigration and encouraging or enforcing migrant departures, with the aim of preserving native majorities.
The model uses official national population statistics to project how migration, births, and deaths could change Europe’s population. It generally carries forward migration levels averaged over 2015-2024 and holds birth and death rates constant.
When will Europeans become a minority in their own country?
The IFR Demography Dashboard answers that question – and shows how remigration could change the course. https://t.co/alL0saMOhb
— Institute for Remigration (@remigrationinst) October 5, 2026
Its “migrant” category includes arrivals from Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere, as well as other European countries, both inside and outside the EU. Depending on the country, it also includes locally born descendants and people who have acquired a national passport. Citizenship alone does not remove someone from the category: Germany, for example, counts people who were born without German citizenship or have at least one parent who was.
“Native” generally means people without that migration background, but the definitions vary. Britain’s calculation uses ethnicity instead – White British and White Irish people count as native, while all other ethnic groups fall into the model’s migrant category, regardless of birthplace or passport.
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The IFR’s projected dates show what could happen if its assumptions about migration, fertility, and mortality hold. According to Eurostat data, the EU’s fertility rate has dropped from 1.54 children per woman in 2014 to 1.34 in 2024, below the 2.1 replacement level. Deaths have outnumbered births since 2012, with 10.7 deaths against 7.9 births per 1,000 residents in 2024.
A generation of change
Switzerland is projected to cross the dashboard’s 50% threshold first, in 2038, from a modeled migrant-background share of 41.2% in 2026. Belgians will become a minority in their own country in 2044, Germany will cross the threshold a year later, and Sweden a year after that (2046). Their modeled immigrant starting shares were respectively 36.6%, 32%, and 36.8%.
The UK is also expected to reach that threshold in 2053, starting at 27.2%, while Spain follows in 2057, from a 25.4% base. For France, the dashboard cites a separate study projecting a similar shift around 2050 under its high-migration scenario.
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Sustained immigration, alongside aging populations and low birth rates, are the primary drivers of the demographic shifts, according to dashboard data. Arrivals also include workers, students, family members, and asylum seekers from Africa, the Middle East, and elsewhere. Ukrainians have added another large European component, with some 4.43 million holding temporary protection in the EU at the end of July.
More arrivals, fewer affordable homes
Across Europe, immigration has added demand for housing and public services that were already struggling to cope. Spain and Ireland are stark examples of governments admitting newcomers without ensuring there are enough homes and infrastructure.
In Spain, immigration-driven population growth has outpaced housing construction, while soaring rents have pushed residents into the streets. The eviction of an 87-year-old woman from her Madrid home of 70 years last month has become a rallying point for sprawling protests across the country. The woman died on October 7.
Immigration is the main driver of housing demand in both Ireland and Spain. It is long past time government slowed the pace of worker and student visa issuance to ease housing demand growth. It should not be controversial to say demand needs to managed, and it is certainly not anti-immigration never mind anti-immigrant.
— Dan O’Brien (@danobrien20) October 6, 2026
In Ireland and Britain, taxpayer-funded accommodation for asylum seekers has fueled resentment among residents struggling to rent or buy. Ireland’s purchase of Dublin’s Citywest Hotel for asylum accommodation prompted protests over the loss of a local amenity in an area already short of facilities.
Britain’s asylum accommodation contracts, meanwhile, are projected to cost £15.3 billion ($21.2 billion) over a decade, more than triple the original estimate. Private providers have amassed substantial profits while communities face added pressure on housing and services.
Security failures
The influx of migrants to Europe over the past decade has also contributed to a major security debate, sharpened by attacks involving people who should already have been removed, or whose dangerous behavior was known to the authorities.
Deadly suspected terrorist attacks have taken place in France, Germany, and Britain involving migrants, exposing failures in screening, monitoring, and deportation enforcement.
Foreign nationals accounted for 42.9% of identified violent-crime suspects [in Germany?] in 2025, disproportionately represented even as recorded violent crime declined, according to police figures.
New video released of the illegals t3rrorizing Paris. (Legal) French citizens / passengers of the subway were trapped as they’re attacked by the fighting age men whom President Macron & his husband imported.
Is this what the EU leaders wanted for the first world? https://t.co/O9vYsyJW8l
— The Beringer Project (@BradBeringer) October 2, 2026
Crackdown on dissent
Drawing attention to the issue, however, has been effectively banned in some European countries. In Britain, the overzealous crackdown on “anti-migrant sentiment” has extended to criminally prosecuting locals for social media posts opposing uncontrolled migration, or even something as mundane as waving the British flag in public.
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In Spain, a group citing police inaction over crime and irregular migration has taken matters into its own hands, launching street patrols and handing suspected thieves to police. Its activities, however, are now the subject of a “hate crimes” investigation.
Former French presidential candidate Eric Zemmour has also faced prosecution over his immigration rhetoric. In September 2025, France’s highest court upheld a €15,000 fine for racial insults and inciting hatred over a speech in which he described immigrants as “colonizers” and Muslim clothing as the “uniforms of an occupation army.”
Growing backlash
Hundreds of thousands of people across Europe voiced their opposition to migration policies during the summer. Large marches were held in London, Madrid, and Dublin that saw protesters demanding stronger border controls and an end to governments leaving local communities to absorb the consequences.
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The authorities, however, have frequently responded by condemning the protests rather than addressing their complaints. Ahead of May’s London march, the British prime minister accused its organizers of “peddling hate and division.”
Meanwhile, parties promising tighter controls have continued to gain public support. In Germany, an October 3 poll put the right-wing AfD at 30%, well ahead of the governing CDU/CSU’s 18%.
Washington’s warning
Europe’s immigration policies have also drawn criticism from abroad. US President Donald Trump has repeatedly attacked the approach, accusing European leaders of “destroying your heritage” through migration policies adopted in the name of being politically correct. His administration has put border restrictions and deportations at the center of its own approach.
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US Secretary of State Marco Rubio delivered a similar warning at February’s Munich Security Conference, saying mass migration threatened “the cohesion of our societies, the continuity of our culture, and the future of our people.”
Speaking in Athens on Wednesday, he accused Western governments of opening borders while surrendering sovereignty to global bureaucracies. He criticized the fashion of prioritizing the “global community over one’s own people” and called for cooperation to secure Europe’s borders against mass migration.
Orders to leave, little effect
European governments have increasingly promised tougher migration controls, but enforcement continues to lag. In the second quarter of 2026, EU countries issued around 110,000 orders to leave, while fewer than 37,000 people were actually returned outside the bloc.
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July’s Ceuta invasion, which saw some 72,000 people cross from Morocco into the Spanish North African exclave in a single day, further exposed the cracks in what Brussels claims is a comprehensive migration policy.
Appeals, missing documents, and countries refusing to take people back have repeatedly delayed removals, while European governments’ own asylum laws have created further bureaucratic barriers to deportations.
Moving detention abroad has offered no simple solution either. Britain abandoned its Rwanda scheme in 2024 after spending nearly a billion dollars only to ultimately relocate four volunteers. Italy’s attempts to offshore asylum processing to Albania were also blocked by the courts, which allowed Rome to use just one of the centers to hold migrants awaiting deportation.
The pressure has also exposed divisions within Europe’s supposedly border-free Schengen area. Germany, France, Austria, and several other members have reinstated checks on travelers arriving from neighboring countries, citing migration and security concerns. Following the Ceuta crisis, Italy also reinstated border checks on all air and sea routes from Spain, with Madrid responding in kind.
READ MORE:
The EU’s ‘strictest-ever migration law’ won’t change anything
The EU’s Migration and Asylum Pact, applied since June, has promised faster screening, asylum decisions, and returns. However, it has so far been unable to clear backlogs, carry out removals at the necessary pace, or give communities relief, instead adding yet another layer of procedures.
